Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.017055 0.019340 0.021825 0.024727 0.028027 0.031664 0.035978
2025-05-04 0.013700 0.016891 0.020665 0.025464 0.031412 0.038556 0.047805
2025-05-11 0.011481 0.014977 0.019354 0.025248 0.032997 0.042865 0.056432
2025-05-18 0.010011 0.013675 0.018482 0.025266 0.034628 0.047141 0.065218
2025-05-25 0.008758 0.012448 0.017486 0.024892 0.035550 0.050403 0.072808
2025-06-01 0.007986 0.011763 0.017108 0.025258 0.037439 0.055071 0.082727
2025-06-08 0.007196 0.010946 0.016430 0.025074 0.038444 0.058477 0.091039
2025-06-15 0.006760 0.010597 0.016382 0.025789 0.040816 0.064075 0.103170
2025-06-22 0.006014 0.009690 0.015388 0.024921 0.040603 0.065607 0.108951
2025-06-29 0.005488 0.009074 0.014781 0.024591 0.041186 0.068402 0.116985
2025-07-06 0.004926 0.008345 0.013921 0.023750 0.040820 0.069567 0.122315
2025-07-13 0.004735 0.008215 0.014030 0.024540 0.043272 0.075656 0.136728
2025-07-20 0.004512 0.008017 0.014018 0.025139 0.045482 0.081589 0.151580
2025-07-27 0.004328 0.007871 0.014084 0.025881 0.048020 0.088341 0.168644
2025-08-03 0.004016 0.007465 0.013648 0.025662 0.048752 0.091839 0.179861
2025-08-10 0.003769 0.007155 0.013358 0.025680 0.049920 0.096234 0.193218
2025-08-17 0.003492 0.006765 0.012884 0.025300 0.050273 0.099073 0.203718
2025-08-24 0.003335 0.006591 0.012802 0.025673 0.052136 0.105022 0.221135
2025-08-31 0.003125 0.006294 0.012456 0.025485 0.052842 0.108693 0.234113
2025-09-07 0.003033 0.006226 0.012557 0.026212 0.055497 0.116584 0.256910
2025-09-14 0.002780 0.005806 0.011912 0.025329 0.054663 0.117071 0.263453
2025-09-21 0.002603 0.005530 0.011542 0.024994 0.054973 0.120017 0.275777
2025-09-28 0.002391 0.005164 0.010955 0.024139 0.054062 0.120207 0.281766